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The DOCV reinforced its calls for a unified federal licensing regime for online casino games and stronger enforcement mechanisms against illegal operators.
An ongoing review of the Interstate Treaty on Gambling, which is meant to conclude by the end of this year, should introduce a nationwide licensing model for online casino games, the group added.
As part of the review, German regulators decided in July to lift the €1 staking limit on online slots, another signal that regulators are actively reassessing the framework ahead of the treaty’s formal review.
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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.
A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.
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“If policymakers once again impose onerous policies that limit a property’s profit potential, then most developers will not take the risk of investing upwards of $10 billion in an IR development,” says Klebanow.
One exception, he notes, could be the Seminole Tribe of Florida and their proposed Hard Rock Resort Casino in Tomakomai, Hokkaido.
“They are currently aggressively growing the Hard Rock Casino brand, with developments under way in Las Vegas, New York City, Greece, Puerto Rico and Jamaica. They will put forth an attractive development proposal, and it appears that they now have the support of local government,” Klebanow notes.
