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The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.

For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.

Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.

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He believes the success of Africa Safer Gambling Week will largely be assessed on whether that channelisation improves by the next edition.

He warns governments and policymakers often misunderstand the primary causes of problem gambling, and therefore enforce measures that squeeze licensed operators and drive the illegal market.

For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.

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But in recently months the company has invested heavily, with capex surging from R277 million to R492 million.

“We have executed one of the largest capability building projects in the company’s history and invested in marketing, customer-acquisition and market share gains in a very intentional way,” Bengtsson said. “We are encouraged that, even with continued investment in the business, adjusted EBITDA growth has accelerated relative to the first half of 2025.”

The company is placing an increased focus on efficiency and margins, with plans for a “lower-cost, more centralised operating model” with the profitability of Sun International’s underperforming assets in mind.